The election is finally behind us and, as I write this, the “markets” are celebrating. Bitcoin is flying -probably because the president-elect has promised to be the bitcoin president. Stocks are flying higher across the board on the morning after. On the other side, gold, silver, oil, and most hard assets are taking it on the chin.
Personally, I look at this as a short-term reaction. The “markets” got what they wanted out of the election. However, I do have a few questions.
#1 As the stock “markets” are rising- so are interest rates. It appears that bonds are being sold along with commodities to fund the race into stocks. While this is short-term bullish for stocks, I have to wonder whether the Fed will let this stand as the cost of funding the government is rising. Personally, I believe that those “in charge” cannot allow rates to rise much further. Is it possible that the “market” may pull back shortly to prop up the bond “market”? Remember, the Fed can lower the overnight rate by mandating it. All other maturities must be bought (most of it with cash from nowhere) to manipulate the rates lower. Not only is the act of “printing and buying” inflationary but the lower rates add gas to the fire.
#2 Other than short-term trading has anything actually changed? If the new president wants negative rates and a weak dollar-sentiments that he has espoused many times- how can commodities not go FAR higher in price? By the way, the US dollar is moving higher as I write this- how long can that last with low to negative rates and a WEAK dollar policy?
#3 So far, we have seen a tamer response than I would have anticipated to the recent election. We have not had an inauguration yet and it is over 2 months away. Will the relative calm last? What is the response in “markets” to chaos or attempts to overturn the election one way or another?
While some are giddy about the outcome and others are mourning, the fact is that regardless of which side won the presidential election the one constant was that they both were promoting weak dollar and low interest rate regimes. While the economic policies may have been quite different in the areas of natural resource production, regulations, border policies, taxes, and tariffs, it is most likely that the only change would be the timing of our dollar’s demise and our economic upheaval.
My take has not changed one bit. The BRICS are making steady progress in setting up an alternative trading platform. The USA has entered what I believe to be a debt death spiral that is growing exponentially and leading to a massive collapse of our debt-based system.
The rest of the world has caught on to the fact that the greatness of the US empire is collapsing in real time. Our military is a shell of its once great self. Our rule of law and justice has become a laughingstock as whomever is in power can seemingly do anything they want but those not in power get the full effect of the law thrown at them for the same offenses. Only in banana republics and authoritarian countries do those “in charge” suppress any opposition with made-up laws and lawfare against political opponents. The world has noticed.
I have spoken to many people who have been in Eastern and Western Europe, and each has had a story about how we are being viewed as warmongers, perverts, and a destabilizing force. The one thing that many said they were asked is “WHAT IS HAPPENING IN YOUR COUNTRY?”
My answer would be simple. We have moved away from the biblical principles that made this country great. We have replaced camaraderie and working together for the common good with destroy the opponent and take it all.
While we spend more money on education than anywhere our schools are seeing falling test scores and we are steadily falling against the rest of the world. The answer to every problem seems to be to throw money at it. This has likely taken place because we can “print money” at will and with no cost and extremely little effort. This also makes our endless wars and ever-expanding debts possible.
The debts that we have piled up will never be paid with our currency retaining almost any VALUE.
The foundation of any society- the family- has been undermined by infidelity and immorality. One of the problems with doing evil deeds is that it impedes your ability to determine between right and wrong. This is probably why so many do things that are harmful but have no regrets.
We have replaced service and care for others for caring only about the bottom line and not worrying who gets hurt to hit the goals so those at the top get the highest bonuses. The difference between C Suite salaries and the common worker have been rising exponentially for as long as I can remember.
There is no loyalty to companies like we saw in the past because there is no loyalty to workers from companies as we saw in the past.
We are truly a country divided.
When the top 1% have average assets of $18 MILLION plus and the bottom 50% have a NEGATIVE $37,000.00 plus net worth trouble is brewing.
Personally, the only debt I trust at this time is T Bills and emerging market debt (some). Stocks, while overvalued could still go higher for a while but there is likely a cliff out there that could shock many at virtually any time. This, along with all the “money printing” that creates no VALUE is what makes me so interested in owning hard assets and in particular gold and silver.
It is apparent to me that if they stop the “printing” the entire debt-based edifice could collapse in no time. If they keep it up it is a matter of time before our currency goes down the same path that all other fiat currencies have traveled. That would be producing so much of it that it becomes virtually worthless.
In either case, I see gold in particular being a big winner. If they stop and debt collapses people will probably ONLY accept something real for something else real. If they do not stop then gold will rise as the dollar’s purchasing power collapses.
The problem is that there will probably be little warning. We are seeing signs right now, but I expect it will be gradual (we are well into gradual) and then all at once. Be in before the “all at once” moment.
A second late and it may be too late.
Be Prepared!
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