Weekly Article 09/19/2024 - ADV Patience

I think one of the major problems we have here in our Western culture is that we expect events which appear inevitable to take place immediately. Another problem we seem to have is that we tend to think linearly. As an asset or object moves in a certain direction most people project that same trajectory into the future. Both ways of thinking can lead to more harm than good.

I recall many times making a purchase expecting a good outcome immediately- or at least in the near future- and have had to wait quite a while to get the desired result. I believe that in investing it is better to be far too early than even a minute late.

There is a lot of talk about the BRICS plus bloc and the likelihood of a new settlement currency which has been talked about. The UNIT, as it has come to be called will supposedly be backed by 40% gold and 60% of either commodities produced by members and/or national currencies.

There is speculation that at the meeting in Russia in late October an announcement may be made unveiling this new settlement currency. Keep in mind this is to settle bilateral trades- bypassing an intermediary- like the US dollar in settling trades among nations. It is not intended to be a BRICS currency used by regular people like us.

When this is announced- whether it is in October or a few years from now is irrelevant. The writing is on the wall for the US dollar and the financial paradigm that has been in effect since 1971. As a matter of fact, less and less trade is being settled in US dollars right now.

Even though the SWIFT system (the system that allows different nations to settle trades and run by the USA) lists the US dollar as the undisputed leader in trade settlements, there is some data missing.

According to author Richard Turrin the calculations put out by SWIFT does not include trades that are not done through the SWIFT system because SWIFT does not capture that information. Most countries that are sanctioned (US using the currency as a weapon) have already started trading using local currencies and gold. For example, China pays Russia in Yuan and gold for oil and gas. Iran accepts gold and other currencies for its oil and Saudi Arabia accepts Yuan for their oil that China buys.

None of these transactions go into the “official” trade numbers so they are a bit misleading already.

Probably far more important is the fact that many, if not most countries, are diversifying their foreign reserves away from the US dollar and mostly into gold but also other commodities and other currencies.

Without the incessant buying by central banks our national debt- which is skyrocketing higher- becomes FAR harder to finance. The Fed, in my opinion, must be conjuring up trillions to buy back the debt being sold by other countries and to fund the $1 TRILLION in debt that we go deeper into every one hundred days or so.

The immensity of selling was shown in a chart put out by the US Treasury and the World Gold Council which shows that in the past 3 years central banks have sold over $1 TRILLION in treasuries while BUYING over $1 TRILLION in gold. The climate does not appear to be changing anytime soon.

While the Fed will have started their “rate reduction cycle” by the time you read this we can actually go back to June of 2024 or so and notice that they have been buying bonds like they are going out of style to reduce interest rates already- they just didn’t announce it yet.

In addition, fifty-nine countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS which currently has 11 members. It appears to me that as time marches on the petrodollar will be dead and buried- like all fiat currencies of the past.

The fact that we are losing our major source of funding which is being replaced by conjuring up cash out nowhere, and adding to existing debt can only lead me to one conclusion. INFLATION will be a MAJOR problem.

There are hundreds of examples of countries getting into similar situations and resorting to the same schemes that we are conducting today. They have all ended the same way. The currencies have collapsed, the societies have collapsed, and all because the inherent problem (LIVING BEYOND OUR MEANS) does not get addressed.

As income collapses it is replaced not by harder work and new ideas but by conjuring up cash out of nowhere to pretend that “ALL IS WELL”. People get paid, people eat and are distracted by sports, entertainment, and politics while the debts rise, we consume hard assets that don’t get replaced in the amount we need them to and it leads not only to massive inflation- like in Venezuela where you needed 3 Million Bolivars for a cup of coffee but also to a lack of goods because of the lack of production.

This vicious cycle leads not only to higher prices and empty grocery shelves but also to street violence as even good people become desperate.

Whether the BRICS deal a fatal blow to the dollar in October or not we have all the elements in place for a drastic decline in our purchasing power and in our way of life.

INFLATION

LACK OF PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY

Conjuring up CASH to CONSUME without replacing consumption and higher debts day by day.

Likelihood of collapse if the current trajectory were to be reversed.

“Leaders” that either fail to see or ignore the fact that the paradigms have changed. The world is laughing at us rather than fearing us. Our “leaders” have been used to calling the shots for so long that they fail to recognize that the rest of the world has had it and is moving on. If we had actual leaders, I believe we would be looking to cooperate with the rest of the world for EVERYONE’S benefit rather than blowing up the world to try and maintain a dying system.

This is not a problem that we can afford to ignore anymore. Many politicians make decisions based upon TODAY and hope that the problems will arrive long after they are gone. I believe that the day they were fearing has arrived.

Be Prepared!

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