Weekly Article 08/01/2024 - ADV USA, The New Venezuela?

I have made my position known for years that the USA has become no better than a third world country.

It is bad enough that we are following the same path that has led to disaster hundreds of times in history, but we have likely not seen anything yet.

I was watching a video of Glenn Beck where he was making the observation of what is going on in Venezuela and comparing it to what is happening here. He went over the lack of election integrity, the lack of the rule of law and other social problems. Very similar to what we are seeing here.

He also was showing how the politicians and those close to them became extremely wealthy while the masses suffered greatly. (Sound familiar?)

The sad part is that the social problems were caused by their currency collapsing.

Glenn did not go into the circumstances that caused all the social problems. I will.

To start with, we must understand that Venezuela was the most prosperous country in South America just a few decades ago. They also sit on some of the largest oil reserves on the planet. This allowed those “in charge” to make many promises to the populace and buy their loyalty and votes.

I’ll bet most Venezuelans had the same “it can’t happen here” attitude that most have here.

In addition to spending too much those “in charge” decided to put people who were not qualified in positions of power. (Sound familiar?) This led to the government taking over oil companies and, along with it, those people with the expertise to PRODUCE the oil were forced out. It should have been no surprise that oil revenues collapsed over the years, but the promises made still remained.

Those “in charge” decided to “print” the money to give the illusion that nothing had changed and that all was “GREAT!” This illusion was able to be maintained for a few years, but inflation became a real problem as there was a lot of money creation but no production or productive assets to back it up. This is the exact path that we are on. Our trade deficits are skyrocketing as we use freshly created cash to import goods that we used to produce ourselves.

It got so bad that just a few years ago in Venezuela they were eating pets and zoo animals to survive.

This should be a wake-up call to everyone here in the USA. While many are suffering from the inflation, we are seeing today we are likely going to be looking at today’s prices as CHEAP.

Not only Venezuela, but in every instance in history that I have seen has the same M.O. Inflation becomes a problem as prices rise faster than incomes. People become aware that if they want a good or service, they better get it today because it will probably cost more tomorrow. Actually, back in Weimar Germany people were paid sometimes twice a day and would use lunch hour to buy goods because prices would be higher by the end of the day. Did the item change between 12 and 5 or was it the currency collapsing in real time?

It appears to me that in every instance inflation is persistent, accelerates and then goes into a hockey-stick formation where the perceived value of the currency collapses. Those interviewed in the past always seem to say, “it happened gradually over time-then all at once!” Just another reason to be ready in advance. There will likely be little, if any warning to us regular folks.

I believe many are blinded by what is taking place here because of the 24/7 non-stop propaganda and the “stories” that are nothing more than a distraction while our economy is imploding and being propped up with tens to hundreds of trillions in currency units globally that produce NOTHING but create a situation where we are consuming and not replacing our consumed products. This leads us closer and closer to that watershed moment when the “printing” leads to a lack of goods and prices skyrocket.

In addition, this new “money” created from nowhere and with no intrinsic value comes with INTEREST attached to it. Currently, we are conjuring up cash to pay off give aways, retire old debt, pay the interest and prop up social spending like the $540 BILLION conjured up last year to make up the tax shortfall for social security and Medicare. To me, this is 100% proof that the “trust funds” are empty.

Those who conjure up the cash (central banks) are all aware of what is happening. Most central banks and countries are buying gold in record levels year after year. They are well aware that- regardless of PRICE- the VALUE of gold rises with every dollar, euro, yen, or any other fiat currency conjured up out of nowhere. They are likely thrilled at the efforts of the Fed and its owner banks to suppress the gold price so they can get more for less cost.

Keep in mind that all this “printing” creates the inflation (currency losing its purchasing power) that leads to the result of rising prices.

Virtually the only central banks that are not loading up are the USA- because it is suppressing the price to continue the illusion of dollar strength along with a few allies. The rest of the world is taking physical delivery in record amounts. Many, like India are also loading up on silver.

I saw a video of my friend Andy Schectman where he revealed that China, a prolific user of silver, is going directly to South American miners to secure the supplies they need- bypassing the LBMA and Comex. This makes me believe that we may be near a supply problem that could make silver the next NVIDIA.

Time will tell.

The numbers are clear. Promises made cannot be kept. This does not mean that payments will not be made but the more “printing” that takes place will lead to a FAR less valuable payment than you were expecting.

Keep in mind that in Venezuela a cup of coffee cost about 2 Bolivars around 15 years ago. 5 years later it was 100 Bolivars. 5 years later it was 3 MILLION Bolivars. In the meantime, an ounce of silver could feed a family of 4 in Venezuela for a month- if you could find any goods to buy. Many traveled across the border to Colombia to get what they needed. This is what happens when a currency is in freefall. To anyone who thinks we are immune from economic laws- good luck! The fact that the world uses the US dollar in most world trade has given us this time where we have lived FAR beyond our means and have not seen the dollar collapse as many other currencies have in the past – YET.

Be Prepared!

Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not purport to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

Commodities are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Commodities are volatile investments and should only be a small part of a diversified portfolio. There may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices are overall rising.

Precious Metals, including gold, are subject to special risks including but not limited to price may be subject to wide fluctuation, the market is relatively limited, the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability and the market is unregulated.

Diversification does not ensure gains nor protect against loss. Companies mentioned are being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Investing involves risk regardless of strategy.